http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/optimistic-australians-defy-global-gloom/2008/11/16/1226770256739.html

Optimistic Australians defy global gloom

November 17, 2008

KEVIN RUDD and the Labor Party are approaching their first anniversary in power more popular with the electorate than at the last election, according to the latest Herald/Nielsen poll.

Even amid signs the global financial crisis is worsening, a solid majority of voters remains happy with the way Mr Rudd is handling the economy. There is an overall optimistic outlook among voters for the economy for the next two to three years.

By contrast, the Coalition has made up no net ground since the election on November 24 last year, despite it switching leaders in September and the nation plunging into a financial slowdown along with the rest of the world.

With next Monday marking a year since the demise of the Howard government, Labor leads the Coalition on a two-party preferred basis by 55 per cent to 45 per cent. This represents a swing to Labor of 2 per cent since the election.

On the primary vote, Labor leads by 45 per cent to 39 per cent, compared with 43 per cent to 42 at the election.

Optimism among consumers remains relatively high, despite the grim warnings from Mr Rudd and others about tough economic times ahead. Coalition attacks on almost every aspect of the Government's response to the crisis have had no impact.

The monthly poll of 1400 voters was conducted from Thursday night to Saturday.

It found 68 per cent approve of Mr Rudd's handling of the economy and 56 per cent are optimistic about the economy in the years ahead.

With the Christmas season to prove a crucial test of consumer confidence, 51 per cent said they would spend the same as they did last year, while 35 per cent said they would spend less and 13 per cent said they would spend more.

The poll will be a stark reminder to the Opposition of the long road back to power.

Although Malcolm Turnbull is more popular than his predecessor, Brendan Nelson, his leadership has not induced any more voters to opt for the Coalition.

Mr Rudd's approval rating is 71 per cent, statistically unchanged from a month ago when it soared as a result of the global financial crisis. Mr Turnbull's approval rating, which also leapt a month ago, fell 4 percentage points to a still healthy 51 per cent, and his disapproval rating rose 5 percentage points to 35 per cent.

Mr Rudd continues to thrash Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister, by 65 per cent to 27 per cent. The 38 percentage-point lead, the highest Mr Rudd has held over his opponent, is unchanged from a month ago.

Mr Turnbull has averaged 50 per cent approval as Opposition Leader, compared with 35 per cent for Dr Nelson. Otherwise, the Coalition's electoral prospects have not improved.

Before the poll, the Opposition was intensifying its criticism of the Government's handling of the global financial crisis. It attacked the guarantees on bank deposits for causing the freezing of mortgage funds and continued to quibble with the size and makeup of the $10.4 billion economic stimulus package.

Last week, senior frontbenchers Andrew Robb and Helen Coonan attacked the growth estimates in the revised budget forecasts as skewed upwards for political purposes, casting aspersions on the integrity of the Treasury.

The apparent leaking and embellishment of a phone call between Mr Rudd and the US President, George Bush, also featured.

"It seems, however, that voter attention has been directed elsewhere as Mr Rudd has retained both his strong personal approval rating and his party's winning position," pollster John Stirton said.